Oil prices fell sharply
Short - term or textile raw material market has a greater impact
On Monday, oil prices hit their highest levels since September 2014, with Brent hitting 96.78 and WTI hitting 95.82. By the close, New York Crude for March delivery was down 3.39, or 3.55 percent, at 92.07 a barrel. Brent crude for April delivery ended down 3.20, or 3.31 percent, at 93.28 a barrel.
As we all know, geopolitical risk has always been a major factor influencing the short-term volatility of crude oil prices. Especially in the post-financial crisis era, in the constantly evolving global political environment, geopolitical events have a more prominent impact on the crude oil market.
This round of continuous rise in international oil prices, in addition to the gradual recovery of international oil demand, the tension between Russia and Ukraine and the market hype induced by the mood can not help. Analysts predict that oil prices could exceed 100 per barrel in the short term if tensions in Ukraine escalate. However, if the situation eases, then crude oil prices could see a significant retreat in the short term, with a view to falling back below 90 / BBL. If it enters a see-saw phase, crude oil prices will trade sideways in the near term between 90 and 95 / BBL.
The change of crude oil price will affect the cost of petrochemical enterprises, and then affect the price of petrochemical products. The price of plastic, rubber, chemical fiber and other industries will also change due to the change of raw material prices. Therefore, in the visible future, oil prices will be affected by geopolitics to usher in large fluctuations on both sides of the textile raw material market has a greater impact.
Under the pressure of environmental protection
Textile town again by the outbreak of the epidemic, weaving demand blocked
On the early morning of February 15, 2022, Suzhou issued an epidemic prevention and control notice, which designated shengze Town, Wujiang District, Guoxiang Street, Wuzhong District, Mudu Town, Gusu District, and Suzhou Industrial Park as medium-risk areas. Among them, Shengze Town is an important economic town of Wujiang city. Shengze is the famous "hometown of silk". Shengze Town has become the main production base, export base and product distribution center of China's silk textile industry. Among them, the water-jet loom industry accounts for more than 85 percent , and the number of water-jet looms is more than 300,000. Back from holiday and history.the most local weaving production enterprise to return to work and production time on January 8 to 12 or so, considering that the majority of migrant workers has not fully return, superposition increased under the influence of the current outbreak, is expected to fully return to work or will delay time, near the construction enterprise is close to 50 percent of the current local water-jet looms, considering the sudden outbreak, Local government "not need not go out, not an emergency leave Sue", and in the city shut down 15 high-speed entrance, set up 31 highway from Sue inspection points, nucleic acid detection within 48 hours driving personnel to carry negative proof and health code for green code, it is understood that migrant workers return with necessary certificates will be smoothly into the local.
Return to work while the outbreak is not large area affected affect the industry, but most enterprises current feedback is lack, the order of superposition of the upstream raw material cost by the end, most of the raw material prices, to cover positions are ready for the downstream users have more years ago, but the prices, the downstream users increased caution, no longer consider large quantities of replenishment for a long time, and small batch buy goods, small frequency is given priority to, Under the influence of this, the profits of downstream users are constantly compressed, and the negotiation time between buyers and sellers is increased.
At the same time, textile enterprises in Shengze area have stopped production due to sewage treatment problems of unqualified enterprises. In total, about 35,000 water jet looms are involved in the treatment site, among which 17,185 are in production, accounting for 49.1 percent of the production. Considering that if the treatment enterprises resume production later, it may be delayed to around May this year, the operation rate of local water-jet loom in Shengze may continue to operate at a low level before this date, and the local water-jet loom enterprises will carry out governance and promotion in an orderly manner in strict accordance with the management regulations.
And no clear notice from other areas in jiangsu province, was not affected by the outbreak, with warp knitting enterprises in changshu and taicang play is gradually restored to return to work and production, estimated this week and will be fully put into production, but the warp knitting enterprises in changshu current resume work rate is low, affected by the foreign staff did not reach the designated position, combined with the years return most downstream textile enterprises did not have received a large area of new single handed down expectations, Therefore, most bosses are not in a hurry to resume work at present, and most of the enterprises that resume work are based on orders received at the end of the year or production inventory. Taicang local ammunition enterprises to resume production after the eighth day of the first lunar month, the current operating rate is close to 50 percent , is expected to meet the full resumption of work this week or next week.
Negative feedback on the demand side will limit the rate of recovery
Demand for raw materials is a worry
From the current polyester market, the seasonal maintenance period before and after the Spring Festival this year, polyester factories did not appear a large area of negative, the overall operating rate is higher than the same period in previous years, but the terminal weaving holiday as scheduled, making polyester factories after the holiday inventory pressure is higher than in previous years. As of February 11, the consolidated equity inventories of filament POY, FDY, DTY and polyester staple fiber factories were 24.7, 29, 29.4 and 14.2 days, respectively, up 9.6, 6.7, 7.4 and 5.1 days from before the holiday, respectively. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of weaving enterprises only recovered to over 30 percent , and is expected to gradually return to normal after the Lantern Festival.
At present, the overall terminal orders are generally normal. Due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, the downstream is cautious about the pursuit of polyester, so in the first week after the Spring Festival, the production and sales of polyester and staple fiber continue to be weak, and only a small amount of replenishment is mainly needed. Weekend geopolitical oil prices triggered by expectations, polyester production and sales slightly improved, but it is difficult to continue to form positive feedback. If there is no significant improvement in the subsequent domestic and foreign sales orders, polyester factories may continue to face greater inventory pressure. The negative feedback on the demand side will limit the rate of operation to continue to pick up speed, the demand for raw materials to form a hidden worry.
source:Hua Xian Tou Tiao
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