In terms of the market trend in 2021, driven by the crude oil market, the price of PTA market fluctuates frequently. The price of auxiliary acetic acid rose sharply, and the processing fees of manufacturers fell, relying on the main supplier of PTA to reduce contract supply to boost the market. However, under the influence of the "double control" policy in the second half of the year, the supply and demand of PTA industry decreased, making the "Gold nine silver ten" market in the peak season is not prosperous. Throughout the whole year, the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of PTA in China made the industry change quietly. The rise of cost and price narrowed the profitability of the whole industry, and the production plan of some new devices was postponed. In this context, the profits of the industrial chain are constantly transferred and redistributed, and the upstream PX profits suffer serious losses, which leads to the downward transmission of industrial value. PTA also suffers losses for most of the year. Due to the low price of raw materials and the reduction of downstream polyester cost pressure, most polyester products are at the profit level, especially the polyester filament product, the highest profit level.
Fíor 1 Cairt treochta den phríomh-mhargadh PTA in 2021
Foinse sonraí: Jinlianchuang Big córas cinneadh sonraí Chliste
Thuar Jin Lianchuang treocht an mhargaidh PTA i 2022 mar seo a leanas:
(1) Fachtóirí tionchair macra agus forimeallacha
Despite repeated outbreaks, the epidemic is still under control, and China's economy is expected to continue the trend of steady recovery in 2022. While the economy continues to improve, there are also factors that may affect the sustainability of the recovery. In terms of structure, it is expected that real estate will continue to trend downward and manufacturing investment will continue to recover upward. Consumption is gradually returning to around potential levels at current low levels. PPI will be affected by the high base down, CPI is likely to rise. Meanwhile, for energy coal and natural gas, natural gas and coal prices are likely to continue to return to fundamentals as demand weakens seasonally. For crude oil, global oil prices are likely to remain high early next year, followed by a downward trend in demand growth.
(2) Réamh-mheastachán BUNÚSACH ar PTA
In 2021, PTA production capacity will grow faster and the original PTA enterprises will expand obviously. Some downstream enterprises will expand raw material devices to reach the trend of upstream expansion of the industrial chain, and realize the development mode of the whole industrial chain from "crude oil - PX-PTA-polyester", and the integrated project will get a leap development. In the process of development, the PTA industry pattern also appears new characteristics, in 2021, domestic PTA will put into production 8.2 million tons of new plants, 1.7 million tons of old plants eliminated. In recent years, the domestic PTA industry has experienced the period of excess capacity and reshuffle to reduce capacity, and the change of supply pattern has a great impact on the market. According to jin Lianchuang statistics, there are 14 million tons of new devices in 2022, if the new device is put into production as scheduled, it is expected that the total production capacity of PTA in 2022 will break through to 81.555 million tons, a growth rate of 20.72 percent .
Ag tabhairt aghaidh ar an mbliain 2022 atá le teacht, creideann Jin Lianchuang go bhféadfadh treocht an mhargaidh baile PTA patrún lag a choinneáil i 2022. Ó thaobh an tsoláthair, le cumas PTA ag méadú 6.5 milliún aonad i 2021, tá ró-acmhainn PTA tar éis teacht ar chomhdhearcadh an tionscail. Cé go bhfuil táirgeadh nua poileistear anuas, tá an ráta fáis i bhfad níos lú ná amhábhar PTA. Ó thaobh an éilimh de, méadaíonn éileamh teicstíle poileistear agus críochfoirt iartheachtacha go mall, agus laghdaítear onnmhairí teicstíle bliain ar bhliain, agus tá fardail i ngach nasc den slabhra tionsclaíoch fós ard. Ina theannta sin, tá neamhchinnteachtaí sa mhargadh amhola freisin, tá an bunchluiche fós i riocht feiceálach. Faoi láthair, tá margadh oligopoly déanta ag an tionscal PTA. Tar éis gléasanna ar chostas ard a bhrú amach, níl comhaontas praghsanna de chineál éigin as an áireamh. Mar sin, coinneofar an margadh PTA i 2022 nó 2021 i dtréimhse táillí próiseála íseal, a mheastar a bheith thart ar 400-600 yuan / tonna.
(3) Athruithe nua sa tionscal
With the development of domestic PTA production capacity, the surplus situation is prominent, and PTA export volume is gradually rising, which also lays a solid foundation for the internationalization of PTA industry. It is understood that the current main supplier's export signing is hot, so the PTA export activity will be enhanced in 2022. However, the growth rate of downstream polyester capacity is slower than that of upstream PTA. However, there is still room for increasing concentration of polyester industry in the future. The upstream and downstream industrial chains of leading enterprises will continue to improve, and the development of enterprise collectivization and industrial chain is obvious. It is expected that the growth trend of 2022 production capacity will continue.
From the perspective of the end textile industry, digital empowerment and green transformation provide key support for the textile industry to seek the evolution of future business forms, upgrade of economic development model and realize sustainable development as the digital economy engine continues to gain momentum and global climate governance becomes increasingly urgent. Textile industry is the pillar industry of national economy and social development, the basic industry to solve people's livelihood and beautify life, and the advantage industry of international cooperation and integration development. It is imperative and a long way to achieve low-carbon development. However, the current real estate demand is sure to decline, the market is not strong on the policy of large-scale relaxation, 2022 is a weak market has basically formed a consensus. As the real estate sales and construction decline to the end of completion, real estate completion is difficult to keep optimistic expectations, it is expected to continue the overall weak trend of textile.
foinse:Hua Xian Tou Tiao
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EiC83MGdVVk9pvrHvFHEcw